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Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Stock Picks for 2012 - Tibco

Today's winner : Technology Stocks


Wish you all a very Happy Trading in 2012  and All my readers a Very Happy New Year

I recently scanned through some beaten down Tech stocks of 2011 and came across some promising names

Let us see their valuations and charts for my first pick of 2012

TIBCO Software

The Reason why picked this names is that the company, it has a quite foothold in Cloud Computing and a great acquisition target for Big players like Oracle and IBM. The valuation is quite attractive and it's unfairly beaten up in the 2011 market crash.The company recently posted a net income of 112 million and  65 cents/share . The Total revenue was around $920 million. The Revenue is expected to be in line with the Analyst estimate for Q1  earnings.

Tibco's line of Business includes SOA, BPM, Business Optimization, Cloud Computing and Complex Event Processing companies using IT heavily.



Valuation and Growth Forecasts


P/E (TTM)

P/E (Fwd 12 Mo.)
Tibx 
23.4x21.0x1.57x11.8%28.8%
Software Industry
20.5x17.2x-0.25x9.4%17.3%
Technology Sector
18.7x15.4x-0.35x9.7%17.7%
S&P 500 
16.6x14.6x-0.41x14.3%7.3%


Charts indicate that the stock has bottomed out and selling has subsided. The selling happened in very low volumes and bounces were on strong volume.


Based on the Growth estimate and valuation , this stock should bounce back to 30's in a month or two. That is a Good trade and 40's if Oracle acquires the company for a 40% premium.

I will continue this article covering the rest of the picks for 2012.


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